Habitat suitability model for predicting the occurrence of scleractinian cold-water corals in the Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea): A tool for restoration planning and governance of deep-sea ecosystems

Cold-water corals (CWCs) are key ecosystem engineers in deep-sea habitats, yet their distribution in the Gulf of Naples remains poorly known. Here, we applied a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with high-resolution environmental predictors to investigate the fine-scale suitability of scleractinian CWCs within the Gulf of Naples and adjacent areas. Presence records were derived from ROV video analyses, while predictors included bottom current velocity from a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) simulation and geomorphological variables from multibeam bathymetry (bathymetric position index, slope, depth, aspect, and backscatter).The model predicted ~0.18 km² of suitable habitat (suitability index >0.6), mainly along canyon slopes and elevated seabed features of the Dohrn Canyon. Additional suitable areas were identified in the northwestern branch, deeper canyon sectors, and south of Ischia Island. Bottom current velocity was the most influential predictor, with highest suitability at 0.15–0.20 m/s, suggesting favorable conditions for sediment removal and food supply. Bathymetric position index indicated a preference for elevated seabed features, while slope showed a positive relationship, with inclinations >30° likely offering optimal settlement conditions. Depth contributed modestly, with suitability concentrated between 200–700 m, potentially linked to the influence of Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW). Aspect and backscatter contributed less but refined the predictions.These findings highlight the role of hydrodynamics and topographic complexity in shaping CWC habitats and reveal unexplored areas with high potential for coral occurrence. Model outputs provide a scientific basis for Natura 2000 site designation and support conservation and restoration strategies for vulnerable deep-sea ecosystems in the Tyrrhenian Sea.